The 50/50 Problem You Won't Believe

Get the Vsauce Curiosity Box: https://www.curiositybox.com/vsauce2

Probability is one of the clearest, more straightforward disciplines within mathematics. Unfortunately, almost nothing in mathematics is murkier and more misleading than… probability. WHAT?!

Belgian mathematician Maurice Kraitchik posed a simple question about wagering wallets, and in doing so he revealed a paradoxical mismatch between a raw, indisputable math conclusion and common sense logic. Why does the math say one thing and reality says another? What do we do when the numbers don’t lie, but we know they aren’t telling the whole truth?

Probability density functions. Bayesian subjectivist analysis. You can put it all together and still not be able to square the math with the simple nagging logic that tells you something different.

Maybe there are some antinomical paradoxes we just have to live with. And maybe that’s okay.

*** SOURCES ***

Merryfield, K., Viet, N., & Watson, S. (1997). The Wallet Paradox. The American Mathematical Monthly, 104(7), 647-649. doi:10.2307/2975058

Carroll, M., Jones, M., & Rykken, E. (2001). The Wallet Paradox Revisited. Mathematics Magazine, 74(5), 378-383. doi:10.2307/2691032

Kraitchik, M. (1942). Mathematical Recreations. W. W. Norton.

*** LINKS ***

Vsauce2:
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@vsaucetwo
Twitter: https://twitter.com/VsauceTwo
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VsauceTwo
Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: https://discord.gg/tyh7AVm
Vsauce2 on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/vsauce2/

Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: https://instagram.com/kevlieber
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinlieber
Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/thecreateunknown

Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
https://twitter.com/TaborTCU

Editing by John Swan
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJuSltoYKrAUKnbYO5EMZ2A

Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
https://www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality

Vsauce's Curiosity Box Store: https://www.curiositybox.com/collections/inqs-shop

#education #vsauce #maths

Prossimo episodio

S01E394 - World's Oldest Number Trick #shorts