Why Mathematicians Won't Help Cops

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Algorithms are so amazing at predicting what you want that ads will be perfectly tailored to your interests and displayed to you just minutes after a complex system has basically mapped your mind. If that’s so easy, why can’t police predict crimes? A few companies claim they can -- but the truth is a lot more complex.

A decade ago, predictive policing algorithms were hailed as one of the most important inventions of our era. In just a few short years, thousands of mathematicians had publicly refused to work on predictive policing projects. What started a century ago in the concentric zone model of mapping urban areas and evolved into social disorganization theory has culminated in sophisticated algorithms that claim to pinpoint the place and type of crime well in advance.

The problem, though, is that algorithmic outcomes are only as good as the data going into them. Between flawed data collection/reporting, yet another black box algorithm, and a total inability to measure results effectively, the promise of predictive policing has come under scrutiny -- and the real question is how long we keep experimenting to get it right, and who we run those experiments on.

*** ADDITIONAL READING ***

“Precise Event-level Prediction of Urban Crime Reveals Signature of Enforcement Bias”: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349228599_Precise_Event-level_Prediction_of_Urban_Crime_Reveals_Signature_of_Enforcement_Bias

Letter, “Boycott Collaboration with Police”: https://www.math-boycotts-police.net/

PredPol’s Predictive Policing Algorithm: https://www.predpol.com/technology/

“Predictive Policing Software Is More Accurate at Predicting Policing Than Predicting Crime,” Ezekiel Edwards: https://www.aclu.org/news/criminal-law-reform/predictive-policing-software-more-accurate

Chicago’s Strategic Subject List Dataset: https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Strategic-Subject-List-Historical/4aki-r3np

“What Can FBI Data Say About Crime in 2021? It’s Too Unreliable to Tell,” Weihua Li, The Marhsall Project: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-data-say-about-crime-in-2021-it-s-too-unreliable-to-tell

"Abraham Wald's work on aircraft survivability". Mangel and Samaniego. June 198, Journal of the American Statistical Association. 79 (386): 259–267: https://people.ucsc.edu/~msmangel/Wald.pdf

“LAPD data programs need better oversight to protect public, Inspector General concludes”: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-lapd-data-20190312-story.html

“UCLA Study Proves Predictive Policing Successful in Reducing Crime Over Several Months of Deployment with The LAPD”: https://www.predpol.com/ucla-predictive-policing-study/

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Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
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Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
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Editing by John Swan
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